Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
